Welcome to the 2021 Week 2 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
Week 2 featured our biggest upset to date with Oregon taking down the Buckeyes on the road. Other notable results from the week: Arkansas picked up a huge win over Texas, Stanford blew out USC, BYU beat Utah for the first time in 9 years, Notre Dame avoided another scare against Toledo, Iowa controlled from start to finish against Iowa State, Miami held off Appalachian State, Texas A&M survived against Colorado and Jacksonville State picked up a last second win over Florida State.
Oregon who last week projected at 9-4 jumps to a CFP spot thanks to their shocking win. Ohio State is certainly still in the mix, but the loss is a huge blow to their expected resume. Texas projected to play Oklahoma for the Big 12 before getting destroyed by Arkansas. Iowa State, the beneficiary in the projections could not pick up an unexpected win over Iowa, who still projects to go unbeaten into the Big Ten title game. In the Pac-12, both USC and Utah dropped in the projections after taking unexpected losses. BYU is so very close to projecting to go unbeaten, yet they remain at 10-2 as of now. Notre Dame probably should have lost to Toledo (or FSU last week) but remains in control of their destiny. Their poor play was enough to vault Virginia Tech who now projects to go unbeaten in the regular season. Miami and Appalachian State projected to play the closest game of the weekend and stayed true to form. App State still rates as the stronger team, but if the game was played in Miami again, we would still project a Miami win. After losing in overtime last week to Notre Dame, Florida State was one of our big losers this week dropping their game to Jacksonville State with what has to be one of the plays of the year. FSU joined USC and Arizona as teams whose strength ratings dropped the most from last week to this week.
Let’s take a look at the Week 2 CFP-Nielsen rankings:
Notes on the Year-to-Date Rankings:
- Georgia remains atop our year-to-date rankings by virtue of having a nearly identical strength resume with Oregon (top resume) and by rating as the second strongest team. Based only on play this year the AP voters putting UGA at #1 are certainly justified.
- Oregon was the big riser in the AP Poll this week and for good reason. We have the Ducks regressing a little bit over the season from their current position, but Oregon at #4 might be a bit low for now. Huge win on Saturday for Oregon.
- Iowa projected to jump into the top 5 and after beating Iowa State on the road that’s right where they find themselves. Iowa’s resume is leaps and bounds ahead of the 4th best resume (Penn State).
- Our strongest rated team comes in at #4 sporting a win over the 28th strongest team (Miami) and a blowout of an FCS school. Alabama projects to rise once their opposition strength moves up a bit.
- Our 41st strongest team sporting wins over FCS SUU and #122 UNLV is Arizona State. Our 42nd strongest team with wins over #91 Louisiana Tech and #35 NC State is Mississippi State. Arizona State is ranked 19th and Mississippi State didn’t get a single vote in this week’s AP Poll.
Year-to-date Rankings vs AP Poll
- Under Ranked teams: Penn State, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Arkansas, BYU, Mississippi State, Miami, UCF, Texas, Kentucky, Pitt, Kansas State
- Over Ranked teams: Clemson, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, UNC, Iowa State, Coastal Carolina, Arizona State
- Things the voters got wrong
- Transitive property is not formally a thing we consider in rankings, but with so few data points it’s hard not to notice someone like USC getting more votes than both Stanford who literally just blew them out and Kansas State who in the previous week blew out Stanford. Any voter giving votes to USC without rewarding wins by Stanford and Kansas State are not valuing the on-field results of the teams.
- Maryland has wins over #40 WVU and a rout of an FCS team. Maryland received 14 points in the AP poll. Oklahoma State has a 1 score win over an FCS team and a 1 score come from behind win over #80 Tulsa who the week prior lost to an FCS team. Oklahoma State received 27 points in the AP poll. The Big 12 teams in general have a ton of way too close results over poor teams (Ok St over Missouri St, Baylor over Texas St, ISU over N Iowa, OU over Tulane, KU over S Dakota, Ok St over Tulsa, K State over S Illinois, Texas Tech over SFA). 7 of the 10 teams have close results over lesser teams, but Oklahoma State was in that position with both of their games and shouldn’t be getting the votes that they are getting (yet) based on their play so far.
Now let’s look at the updated End-of-Year Projected CFP-Wheeler rankings:
Notes on the Year-End Projected Rankings:
- Ohio State losing to Oregon bumps Georgia up a spot and launches Oregon from a projected 9-4 season to 13-0 and in the playoffs. Ohio State actually has a stronger resume at 12-1 than Oregon at 13-0, but we apply head-to-head results in our rankings when appropriate and this is definitely a case of results applying. Unbeaten Oregon would still be at risk though should Iowa beat Ohio State to win the Big Ten.
- Virginia Tech is the only top 10 projected team not already in the AP top 10. If VT goes unbeaten in the regular season as we project them to do, they will end up in the top 10 for sure. It is unknown at this point if a Virginia Tech win over Clemson in the ACC title game would be enough to get the Hokies into the CFP without help from others.
- Cincinnati still needs some help to move up the chain. BYU is tantalizingly close to projecting to go unbeaten, but would also need help to find themselves in the mix.
- Boise State is the only projected top 25 team not receiving votes right now in the AP poll, which is surprising given a close loss to #26 UCF on the road in week 1.
- Coastal Carolina is riding the high from last year, but the raw resume is simply not strong enough to merit the kind of resume they would need to be in the mix this year even if they beat Appalachian State (their only projected loss).
Unexpected results from Week 2 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
- (11) Oregon over (5) Ohio State
- (52) Stanford over (36) USC
- (31) Arkansas over (17) Texas
Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating
Risers
- #52 Stanford (-11.3)
- #66 San Diego State (-10.3)
- #11 Oregon (-10.1)
- #31 Arkansas (-7.8)
- #42 Mississippi State (-7.4)
Fallers
- #62 Texas Tech (+5.9)
- #117 Rice (+6.1)
- #75 Florida State (+7.9)
- #36 USC (+9.0)
- #107 Arizona (+11.2)
Now let’s highlight a few Week 3 games worth watching (CTSR Ranking: CTSR Rating):
- #1 Alabama (1: 1.0) to beat #11 Florida (7: 22.2)
- #10 Penn State (9: 22.6) to beat #22 Auburn (10: 22.7)
- #8 Cincinnati (12: 26.1) to beat Indiana (37: 38.9)
- #17 Ole Miss (15: 30.3) to beat Tulane (46: 42.3)
- #21 North Carolina (18: 31.1) to beat Virginia (25: 36.3)
- #12 Notre Dame (19: 31.3) to beat Purdue (49: 42.8)
- #15 Virginia Tech (22: 32.9) to beat West Virginia (40: 39.6)
- Boise State (26: 36.4) to beat Oklahoma State (34: 37.8)
- #24 Miami (28: 36.7) to beat Michigan State (43: 40.0)
- #23 BYU (29: 36.7) to beat #19 Arizona State (41: 39.7)
That’s all we have for the Week 2. If you have any questions about either the CFP-Wheeler or CFP-Nielsen Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter or Facebook. If you would like to officially reference our rankings the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
College Football Playoff Resume Rankings 