2022 Week 2 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2022 Week 2 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

What a fantastic week we just had in College Football!  A quintet of top 25 upsets headline the Week 2 outcomes, and a near upset led to the AP voting in a new #1 in the country.  The weekend started with Texas pushing Alabama for all they could handle.  A missed chip shot field goal, and a near safety proved to be huge missed opportunities for Texas.  With those close calls and other drives that stalled in FG range for UT, Alabama was able to capitalize with a late TD drive to secure a 17-16 lead.  The Longhorns marched down the field, led by their backup QB, and kicked a lengthy field goal to take a 2-point lead with a minute and a half to play.  That proved to be too much time for the Crimson Tide, as 2021 Heisman winner Bryce Young drove Alabama into field goal range for a game winning kick.  Following the loss, Texas moved into the AP top 25, possibly being the first team to lose their way into the top 25.

Notre Dame was the next top 10 team on the hot seat on Saturday in a surprisingly competitive game with new Sun Belt member Marshall.  The Herd found themselves down a score late and marched the length of the field to score a go-ahead touchdown.  Notre Dame had time to respond, but a pick six sealed their fate.  The road win for Marshall on most weeks would have been the upset of the day, but in College Station Appalachian State had their eyes on an even bigger prize.  Holding the ball for over 40 minutes, Appalachian State put on a ball control clinic over Texas A&M, and the Mountaineer defense held the Aggies to a single offensive score.  For the first time since their earth shattering upset over Michigan, App State picked up a top 10 road win to derail what could have been a championship campaign for Texas A&M.  As punishment for their losses, the AP voters dropped Notre Dame from 8 to unranked, and Texas A&M from 6 to 24 in the latest AP poll.

There were 3 games between ranked teams on Saturday, all going to the lower ranked team.  In the afternoon it was Tennessee getting past Pitt in a tight game on the road.  If Tennessee can manage an 11-1 record with a loss to Georgia, an outside shot at a playoff berth is in play given the strength that Pitt may bring as a non-conference win.  In the evening window, Kentucky did what Utah couldn’t in Week 1, win in The Swamp.  The UK defense made enough plays late in the game to hold on to their lead and will move way up in our year-to-date rankings.  The AP voters were quick to drop Florida back behind Utah which is a puzzling move, but Florida stayed in the top 20 and with the non-conference win from Week 1 still has plenty to play for on the season.  In the late window BYU and Baylor played a thriller with a bevy of missed kicks contributing to a double overtime result.  In the end BYU was able to find the endzone and Baylor was not.  This is a setback for the Bears who will now move forward without a signature non-conference win, meanwhile BYU now will likely be strongly in the CFP hunt late in the season so long as they survive the pair of Oregon and Notre Dame, who both don’t seem nearly as daunting as previously expected.

Let’s take a look at the Week 2 CFP Year-to-Date Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the Year-to-Date Rankings:

• Arkansas now has a strong pair of wins to their resume, and has been rewarded in the AP with a top 10 ranking.  Their year-to-date resume gets them a lot higher in our rankings.  The Hogs will have a tough SEC schedule, but there is plenty of value in the non-conference to ensure a strong raw resume to help elevate Arkansas deep into the season.
• BYU has a signature win over a potential power 5 champion.  If BYU is going to find themselves in the playoffs, they will need to pull for the Bears to run the table or at a minimum win the Bin 12.  The other signature games for the Cougars have both already had reputation tarnishing losses with Oregon getting demolished in Week 1 by Georgia and Notre Dame falling to Marshall in Week 2.  Arkansas will come to Provo late in the season.  Will BYU be unbeaten when the Hogs roll into town?
• Kentucky moves to 2-0 with a huge road win over Florida and jumps firmly into both the AP top 10, and into our year-to-date top 10.  Tennessee may be the only significant test on the schedule before Georgia rolls into town in November.
• Oregon State, Mississippi State, and North Carolina may not be getting their due in the AP poll, but their resumes thus far certainly warrant strong ranking.  Oregon State has picked off a pair of Mountain West powers, Mississippi State has a pair of FBS wins, and North Carolina recently beat the vaunted Aggie killing Mountaineers from Appalachian State on the road.  Sure, App State just pulled out possibly the upset of the season, but they should not be getting more votes than the unbeaten team that just beat App State in their building.
• AP Mistakes:  App State over UNC, Utah over Florida, Texas A&M over App State

Now let’s look at the updated Projected CFP End of Year Rankings (note: these rankings should project the end of year CFP committee rankings assuming no upsets):

Notes on the Year-End Projected Rankings:

• After beating the Bears, BYU has jumped to an impressive season end projection of 12-0.  If BYU wants Cincinnati treatment from last year the Cougars will likely need one or more of Baylor, Arkansas, Oregon and Notre Dame to finish the season strongly.  Notre Dame and Baylor project to fall short of what BYU would require for contention though, both projecting to currently finish 7-5.
• Texas A&M was the big loser from the weekend dropping to a projected 6-6 season finish.  It’s not inconceivable to see a path for the Aggies to be 2-7 in November, but at a minimum, the projections don’t favor A&M to charge back into national contention following the loss to Appalachian State.
• Marshall is the weekend’s big winner, going from a mid-pack Sun Belt team to a projected 12-1!  The upset of Notre Dame is certainly shocking and makes you wonder if the Fighting Irish are really not that great, or if the Thundering Herd are the real deal.  Louisiana projects to win the Sun Belt title, but it won’t take much additional growth for the Herd to get to a 13-0 projection.  Only time will tell.

Unexpected results from Week 2 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• Washington State over Wisconsin
• Appalachian State over Texas A&M
• Marshall over Notre Dame

Expected results given what we now know about the teams

• BYU over Baylor
• Kentucky over Florida
• Tennessee over Pitt

Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating

Risers

• South Alabama (-15.3)
• Kansas (-14.8)
• Duke (-14.7)
• Georgia Southern (-14.4)
• Marshall (-14.0)

Fallers

• Notre Dame (+7.4)
• West Virginia (+5.5)
• Texas A&M (+4.8)
• Wisconsin (+4.6)
• UCF (+3.4)

Now let’s highlight a few Week 3 games worth watching (CTSR Ranking: CTSR Rating):

•  #22 Penn State (9: 22.3) vs Auburn (33: 34.4)
• #12 BYU (14: 25.3) vs #25 Oregon (35: 34.9)
• Mississippi State (15: 26.0) vs LSU (41: 35.7)
• #24 Texas A&M (27:  31.5) vs #13 Miami (28: 31.8)
• #16 NC State (23: 29.4) vs Texas Tech (36: 35.0)
• Syracuse (39: 35.6) vs Purdue (29: 32.0)
• Maryland (49: 37.9) vs SMU (37: 35.5)

That’s all we have for the Week 2.  If you have any questions about either the CFP End of Year Rankings or CFP Year-to-Date Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter or Facebook.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)