2022 Week 3 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2022 Week 3 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

Week 3 was a week of Vegas predicted upsets and super close calls.  #11 Michigan State, #12 BYU and #13 Miami all lost as higher ranked road underdogs, a fate Baylor experienced last week when playing at BYU.  As in last week’s late-night upset, Vegas hit on all three predictions this week.  Washington has been searching for relevance of late and picked up a huge win over #11 Michigan State to jump up the AP rankings.  #25 Oregon recovered from their week 1 faceplant to dominate #12 BYU from the start.  It was a surprising performance given the quality of play for Oregon against Georgia.  Maybe the Bulldogs are just that good.  #24 Texas A&M recovered from the loss to Appalachian State to beat #13 Miami in a low scoring affair.  The Aggie offense still struggled, but the defense held together this time as A&M delivered the Hurricanes their first loss of the season.

While there were no other ranked losses on the weekend, there were tons of close calls and amazing finishes.  Amongst the close calls were #10 Arkansas needing 21 4^th quarter points to overcome a double-digit deficit to FCS Missouri State, #18 Florida nearly going to overtime with South Florida and surviving off of back-to-back botched snaps, and #19 Wake Forest holding on with a 2-point conversion stop to survive Liberty by a point.  Meanwhile, in the amazing finish category, Appalachian State found themselves needing a touchdown with 20 seconds to play, fired a few incompletions, and then lofted up a Hail Mary well short of the end zone.  With the buzz of having College Gameday in town still prevalent, the packed stadium watched as Christian Horn caught the tipped pass just outside the 5, turned the corner and raced just inside the pylon for the game winning score.  There will be plenty of amazing finishes on the season, but this will be up there for play of the year when the season is over.

Let’s take a look at the Week 3 CFP Year-to-Date Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the Year-to-Date Rankings:

• Penn State has been slowly climbing the AP rankings, but given the strength of their early season opponents they have already elevated themselves well up our year-to-date rankings.  This week Penn State sits at #4 with the strongest raw resume.  Preseason expectations are all that is holding Penn State back in the AP poll at the moment.
• Florida State now sits at 3-0 with two road Power 5 wins.  Having the 3^rd strongest raw resume is good enough for the Seminoles to rank in our top 10 even as they sit unranked in the AP.
• Syracuse won a thrilling game with Purdue on Saturday (an opponent Penn State beat in a close game) and also boasts a strong win over Louisville (someone Florida State narrowly beat this week).  Despite similar wins, the Orange only received 7 voting points this week in the AP poll.  Their top 10 raw resume isn’t lost on us though as Syracuse sits just barely in the top 10.
• Oregon St vs USC is an interesting ranking conundrum and highlights the bias given towards preseason expectations.  In 2021, Oregon State finished the season 7-6.  USC finished 4-8, fired their coaching staff, and with Lincoln Riley and double-digit transfers hit the reset button.  Given the high-profile talent coming in, USC started the season ranked and has moved into the top 10 following wins over Rice (4-8 in 2021), Stanford (3-9 in 2021) and Fresno State (10-3 in 2021).  Oregon State meanwhile is also 3-0 currently with wins over Boise State (7-5 in 2021), Montana State (2021 FCS National Runner Up), and Fresno State (playing the Bulldogs on the road).  While USC is moved into the top 10, Oregon State remains unranked despite similar quality wins on the season.  Maybe USC wins big when these unbeaten teams meet in week 4, but in the absence of disparate raw resumes USC sitting in the top 10 while Oregon State remains unranked is a great example of pre-season expectations influencing early season rankings and the potential narrative of the season.

Now let’s look at the updated Projected CFP End of Year Rankings (note: these rankings should project the end of year CFP committee rankings assuming no upsets):

Notes on the Year-End Projected Rankings:

• With Oklahoma displaying strength in their win over Nebraska, we are back to 5 unbeaten teams heading into conference championship weekend with Georgia and Alabama projecting to meet for the SEC, and Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma projecting to sit unbeaten in their respective title games.  There are always upsets that simplify the playoff picture, but this would be a chaos situation for the committee given that the loser of the SEC title game would likely have a stronger resume than both Oklahoma and Clemson.  We won’t worry too much about that scenario until it holds going into the actual committee rankings.
• Washington certainly elevated their stock this past weekend with their win over #11 Michigan State.  In our projections, Washington now shows to go 11-1 in regular season play with only a tight loss to Oregon impeding an unbeaten regular season campaign.  If the Huskies can continue on that trajectory and upset the Ducks, Washington could be playing in the Pac 12 title game with a playoff spot on the line.
• Tulane winning over Kansas State on the road was another of the big shocks of the weekend.  With the boost to their team strength rating, Tulane now projects to be 11-0 heading into their late November showdown with Cincinnati.  11-0 Tulane vs 10-1 Cincinnati could be a game to determine the top Group of 5 team in the late season committee rankings, and if Kansas State turns it around and makes some noise in the Big 12 maybe Tulane could find themselves on the edge of playoff consideration.

Unexpected results from Week 3 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• Tulane over Kansas State
• Charlotte over Georgia State
• Rice over Louisiana
• Bowling Green over Marshall
• Eastern Michigan over Arizona State
• Wyoming over Air Force

Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating

Risers

• Rice (-9.0)
• Kansas (-8.2)
• Tulane (-7.9)
• Bowling Green (-7.1)
• Washington (-6.4)

Fallers

• Arizona State (+11.0)
• Louisiana (+10.9)
• Nebraska (+10.6)
• Northwestern (+10.2)
• Houston (+10.2)

Now let’s highlight a few Week 4 games worth watching (CTSR Ranking: CTSR Rating):

• #3 Ohio State (3: 8.5) vs Wisconsin (24: 33.0)
• #4 Michigan (4: 17.6) vs Maryland (35: 35.8)
• #5 Clemson (8: 23.1) vs #21 Wake Forest (23: 32.5)
• #6 Oklahoma (5: 19.6) vs Kansas State (38: 37.7)
• Iowa State (15: 28.1) vs #17 Baylor (20: 30.7)
• #10 Arkansas (16: 28.1) vs #23 Texas A&M (26: 33.1)
• #7 USC (12: 27.2) vs Oregon State (29: 33.7)
• #11 Tennessee (7: 21.3) vs #20 Florida (46: 40.6)
• Minnesota (19: 30.1) vs Michigan State (28: 33.5)
• #15 Oregon (18: 29.7) vs Washington State (40: 37.8)
• #22 Texas (14: 27.6) vs Texas Tech (45: 40.1)
• Notre Dame (33: 35.3) vs North Carolina (43: 39.4)

That’s all we have for the Week 3.  If you have any questions about either the CFP End of Year Rankings or CFP Year-to-Date Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter or Facebook.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)