2022 Week 4 CFP Resume Rankings!

cfpresumerankings

Welcome to the 2022 Week 4 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

In Week 4 we witnessed four amazing ranked upsets, an overtime classic, a goal line fumble to convert a win into a loss, and the continued winning for several new or non-traditional powers.  In the early window on Saturday, Clemson and Wake Forest took center stage playing a back-and-forth battle that would not be resolved until double overtime.  Wake Forest looked every bit on par with Clemson for the duration, but on their second overtime series the Demon Decans couldn’t find the endzone and Clemson survived a serious upset bid.  In another battle of unlikely unbeaten teams, the Kansas Jayhawks pushed through Duke to reach 4-0 for the first time since the late 2000’s.  You will find Kansas relatively high in our year-to-date rankings, unlike in the AP poll where they amazingly remain unranked.  In a less heralded game in the same window, Missouri and Auburn produced a finish that would make even the craziest college football sickos cringe.  After a second half snooze fest capped off by a 26-yard missed field goal for the win, we were treated to an overtime disaster of epic proportion.  With Auburn connecting on a long field goal, Missouri could score a touchdown for the win.  On 2nd and 5 from the 20, the Missouri running back broke free down the far sideline for what looked like the game winning score, yet at the half yard line he fumbled trying to extend past the pylon and Auburn recovered in the end zone for the win. The disaster of a game finished with a disaster of a play, and we wouldn’t want it any other way!

In the afternoon window we were greeted with a classic rivalry game in Lubbock Texas with Texas Tech taking down Texas in overtime in possibly their last meeting prior to the move by UT to the SEC.  In a classic announcer’s jinx, the ESPN color commentator suggested placing the ball in star RB Bijan Robinson’s hands at the start of OT, and on play 1 the Longhorn’s did just that, only to watch Bijan fumble and Texas Tech recover.  A chip shot field goal later and the Red Raiders had their first home win over ranked UT since 2008.  In a more surprising result, Middle Tennessee moved to 3-0 all time over Miami by throttling the Hurricanes on the road 45-31.  No sequence summarized the result better than an early 4th quarter goal line stand on 4th down for the Blue Raiders followed immediately by a 98-yard bomb for a touchdown.  Miami had opportunities to fight back into the game, but could never get over the hump thanks to a barrage of long-distance touchdowns.  Also, welcome to FBS James Madison who beat early season darling Appalachian State in a huge come from behind effort!

In the evening window, Texas A&M overcame a slow start to upset #10 Arkansas 23-21.  It’s easy to argue that Arkansas played the better game and should have won, but two key sequences flipped the game in A&M’s favor.  First, with Arkansas inside the 5, Texas A&M forced a fumble as the quarterback dove over the pile for the endzone, and on a crazy return including a lateral the Aggies scored a touchdown of their own turning in a 13-point swing that would flip the momentum of the game.  Arkansas battled back and earned a field goal attempt inside of 2 minutes to play that doinked (oinked??) off of the top of the right upright sealing the win for Texas A&M.  As the Aggies celebrated, the upset of the week unfolded in Norman Oklahoma, with Kansas State for the 3rd time in 4 years knocking off a top 10 Oklahoma team.  It proved to be a revenge game for former Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez who did it all for Kansas State in a game they led from the first possession.  When OU caught up at 14 all, Kansas State marched right down the field to retake the lead.  OU would never lead and after a last grasp onside kick failed, Kansas State secured the win of the weekend.

Other teams not yet mentioned moving up this week by beating previously unbeaten teams include: USC over Oregon State, Oregon over Washington State, Michigan over Maryland, Baylor over Iowa State, Notre Dame over North Carolina, Cincinnati over Indiana, Iowa over Rutgers and Southern Miss over Tulane.

Let’s take a look at the Week 4 CFP Year-to-Date Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the Year-to-Date Rankings:

Let’s take a look at the resumes so far for 3 teams we have ranked that the AP voters left unranked:

  • Kansas / Syracuse
    • Which resumes belongs to Kansas and Syracuse? (Using Composite Team Strength Rating)
    • Team A: 4-0, wins over CTSR rating 39.3 (Home), 39.9 (Home), 52.0 (Home), 81.5 (Away)
    • Team B: 4-0, wins over CTSR rating 35.5 (Home), 51.4 (Away), 81.5 (Home), FCS
    • Team C: 4-0, wins over CTSR rating 43.8 (Away), 46.2 (Away), 54.1 (Home), FCS
    • You might be surprised to learn that although Team B was a field goal away from losing their road game to East Carolina, NC State sits in the Top 10 of the AP Poll.  Meanwhile, Team A (Syracuse) and Team C (Kansas) remain unranked.  What is the difference?  Preseason Expectations.
  • Texas Tech
    • Which resume belongs to Texas Tech? (Using Composite Team Strength Rating)
    • Team A: 3-1, wins over CTSR rating 43.8 (Home), 66.3 (Away), FCS, Loss to 20.9 (Home)
    • Team B: 3-1, wins over CTSR rating 59.2 (Home), 61.9 (Away), 70.6 (Home), Loss to 31.8 (Home)
    • Team C: 3-1, wins over CTSR rating 29.4 (Home), 46.2 (Home), FCS, Loss to 27.5 (Away)
    • All 3 of these teams have respectable losses to strong teams, though Team C lost their game on the road.  The Texas Tech Red Raiders (Team C) also boast the strongest win of the bunch.  Meanwhile #24 Pitt (Team A) and #18 Oklahoma (Team B) have the benefit of Preseason Expectations on their side, and that is why they remain ranked while Texas Tech is receiving votes in this week’s AP poll.

Now let’s look at the updated Projected CFP End of Year Rankings (note: these rankings should project the end of year CFP committee rankings assuming no upsets):

Notes on the Year-End Projected Rankings:

  • There is absolute chaos in the Big 12 with extreme parody across the league.  In our current Composite Team Strength Rating, 9 of the 10 Big 12 teams are in the top 40, and WVU isn’t far back at #55.  Baylor currently projects to nip Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, but the BYU loss is too much to overcome for the Bears to push to the playoffs.
  • BYU meanwhile only has the Oregon loss on the resume but sits at #19 way behind Baylor.  We are big proponents of applying head-to-head results in our rankings, but there are a few criteria that we allow that free strong teams up from bad losses.  In this case, BYU rates within 10 rating points of Baylor on team strength, but the Bears’ overall resume is more than 15 points stronger accounting for the Big 12 title, and that frees BU from their road loss early this season.
  • With a poor showing against Kent State, Georgia has fallen behind Alabama in the Composite Team Strength Rating meaning that the Crimson Tide now project to win the SEC and take the #1 position in the playoffs.  The drop off for Georgia is also why we now see Ohio State at #1 in our year-to-date rankings.
  • Only two teams, Texas A&M and Wake Forest, currently sit in the AP Top 25 but project to not finish with Top 25 resumes.

Unexpected results from Week 4 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

  • Navy over East Carolina
  • Kansas State over Oklahoma
  • Texas Tech over Texas
  • Middle Tennessee over Miami
  • UTEP over Boise State
  • Louisiana Monroe over Louisiana
  • Southern Miss over Tulane

Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating

Risers

  • San Jose State (-11.4)
  • Middle Tennessee (-10.8)
  • Navy (-10.6)
  • Buffalo (-10.6)
  • Minnesota (-9.6)

Fallers

  • Boise State (+7.9)
  • Western Michigan (+5.7)
  • Michigan State (+5.3)
  • Eastern Michigan (+5.3)
  • Louisiana (+5.3)

Now let’s highlight a few Week 5 games worth watching (CTSR Ranking: CTSR Rating):

  • #2 Alabama (1: 1.0) vs #20 Arkansas (24: 28.8)
  • #5 Clemson (5: 18.0) vs #10 NC State (18: 25.5)
  • #14 Ole Miss (9: 21.3) vs #7 Kentucky (17: 25.4)
  • #16 Baylor (11: 23.5) vs #9 Oklahoma State (12: 23.8)
  • #4 Michigan (4: 16.3) vs Iowa (31: 31.6)
  • #18 Oklahoma (13: 23.8) vs TCU (30: 31.3)
  • Mississippi State (29: 29.9) vs #17 Texas A&M (22: 27.8)
  • #21 Minnesota (8: 20.5) vs Purdue (43: 37.3)
  • #12 Utah (15: 24.6) vs Oregon State (38: 34.0)
  • #23 Florida State (21: 27.6) vs #22 Wake Forest (34: 32.3)
  • #15 Washington (23: 28.3) vs UCLA (36: 33.1)
  • #25 Kansas State (28: 29.8) vs Texas Tech (37: 33.4)
  • Iowa State (25: 28.8) vs Kansas (39: 34.6)

That’s all we have for the Week 4.  If you have any questions about either the CFP End of Year Rankings or CFP Year-to-Date Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter or Facebook.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)

Published by cfpresumerankings

Leave a comment