Welcome to the 2021 Week 10 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
Last week we got our first set of CFP Rankings with a few key surprises that will set the tone for the last 4 weeks of play. Oregon is getting a lot of value out of the Ohio State win, and the Stanford loss which looks worse and worse with each passing week seems to get a pass due to the absence of the Oregon OC from the staff for that game. As long as the committee sees Oregon on a similar tier with Ohio State the Ducks will be in a fantastic position for the playoffs. Oklahoma was the other major surprise from the initial rankings with the #3 overall resume and a committee ranking of #8. The deviation is a huge blow for the Sooners who will now need to jump Cincinnati and the Ohio State/Oregon pair to feel comfortable going into the playoffs. Could the committee select Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State and Cincinnati if Oklahoma squeaks out the rest of their schedule? Maybe. The committee often submits rankings that show lots of volatility after big wins. Oklahoma will have 4 quality opponents to demonstrate strength against, but the low early ranking removes the margin of error should the Sooners take a loss along the way. Cincinnati is ahead of their resume for now, but should close with a decent shot at the playoffs if the projected results go as expected. Plenty of room for complaint, but the Bearcats rate as the 6th strongest team and were ranked last week at 6, so the committee isn’t totally out of line to have them where they do.
This week we had a few major upsets that certainly impact the playoff race. The loss for Baylor to TCU all but eliminates the Bears. Wake Forest is now a super long shot after a road loss to North Carolina. Michigan State loses their margin of error with a road loss to Purdue. Other results down the line may not impact the playoff directly, but the overall resume for contenders certainly changes with losses by Auburn, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Minnesota and Fresno State. The key for this week’s committee rankings is that most of the top teams won ugly and didn’t have signature opponents giving the committee little incentive to elevate a team beyond where they were last week.
Let’s take a look at the Week 10 CFP-Nielsen rankings (note: these ranking should mirror the CFP committee):
Notes on the Year-to-Date Rankings:
- Oklahoma maintains their spot at #3 in our resume rankings coming off of the bye, but the margin ahead of Ohio State and Oklahoma State is razor thin. Ohio State has played quite well over the past several weeks and has elevated themselves in the team strength ratings. The rise of Oklahoma State is surprising because it’s getting a lot less press coverage. A strong Oklahoma State is a plus for Oklahoma should they drop a game to Baylor or Iowa State since there would be two chances to impress against a strong opponent before the playoffs begin. Meanwhile if Oklahoma State wins out, they are almost certainly going to have a top 4 resume despite the number of teams they would seemingly need to jump based on last week’s CFP rankings.
- Michigan over Michigan State requires some explanation. Michigan State would normally be ahead from the application of Head-to-Head results. Our logic however with strict application would have Michigan State behind Purdue (within 1 game in conference record and a loss, not 10+ rating points stronger, not 12+ overall resume rating points better). Purdue would be held by the same logic behind Wisconsin, and the Badgers would be behind Michigan. Because all 4 teams have circular H2H impacting rankings all 4 are freed from their losses meaning that Michigan is not forced behind Michigan State and the gap in team strength rating is enough for Michigan to move ahead. Don’t expect the committee to come to that exact conclusion, but we follow the data and logic applied even when it doesn’t feel right. That logic is meant to not penalize a team for playing stronger non-conference or cross-divisional opponents leading to different overall records.
- Ole Miss with 2 losses ahead of Cincinnati feels super yucky. Let’s examine why that happened.
- Ole Miss win values: (34.7, 0, 9.3, 0 (L), 44.0, 43.7, 38.1, -0.8 (L), 33.6)
- Ole Miss raw resume rating: 29.5 (9th)
- Cincinnati win values: (15.3, 0, 24.3, 61.7, 0.9, 30.8, 14.1, 13.4, 15.5)
- Cincinnati raw resume rating: 37.3 (17th)
- Ole Miss strength rating: 25.9 (12th)
- Cincinnati strength rating: 19.4 (6th)
- The required explanation comes with the raw resume and the lack of devaluation for Ole Miss and their losses. Ole Miss has 2 losses, one to Alabama and one to Auburn. The loss to Alabama does not penalize Ole Miss because Alabama rated as the stronger team. The loss to Auburn does, but that game being on the road lessens the impact in terms of win value. The big penalties come from losing to teams that you shouldn’t lose to. This is meant to not penalize teams playing a lot of teams better than themselves. Playing and losing to Georgia for example is equally as valuable as winning against an FCS team for 129 teams in FBS. Also, the raw resume is not just the best win you have. There is no question that Cincinnati’s win at Notre Dame is more impressive than any singular result for Ole Miss. Ole Miss does however have 5 wins stronger than the 2nd best win for Cincinnati and that matters on the overall resume. Winning isn’t easy when your opponent is relatively strong. For example, teams weaker than Auburn but better than UCF with wins over top teams:
- Miami over Pitt
- North Carolina over Wake Forest
- Purdue over Iowa
- Purdue over Michigan State
- Arkansas over Texas A&M
- Mississippi State over Texas A&M
- Playing and winning those mid-tier games matters. Some of the loose games Cincinnati has had recently may have gone the other way if the opponent was stronger. The close games against Navy and Tulsa might break the other way if against Arkansas or Purdue. Cincinnati will be ranked by the committee several spots higher than Ole Miss, and that’s ok. Just understand that the overall resume that is holding Cincinnati back has them more on par with Ole Miss than Oklahoma and Ohio State.
Reasonable CFP Rankings for Contenders based on different blends of Resume Data
Now let’s look at the updated End-of-Year Projected CFP-Wheeler rankings (note: these rankings should project the end of year CFP committee rankings):
Notes on the Year-End Projected Rankings:
- There is a lot of controversy in the current committee rankings over the elevation of Oregon beyond their resume ahead of Ohio State. This means the committee views those teams close enough to value the Head-to-Head result between the two teams from earlier this year. Our projections now show Oregon dropping a game to Utah before winning the rematch in the Pac-12 championship game. This additional loss would in practice eliminate Oregon from playoff contention and eliminate the pending controversy with Ohio State who would project to pick up several high profile wins from now to the end of the season.
- If the final playoff spot comes down to Alabama, Wake Forest and Cincinnati it isn’t as clear cut as it seems, but Cincinnati is likely in a good spot. Cincinnati will remain ahead of Wake Forest in the committee rankings without a loss and would only really need to jump 11-2 Alabama to get in. The committee has not yet elevated a team without a top 4 resume into the playoffs, but they have also never selected a team with 2-losses. It’s hard to see a path for 11-2 Alabama to stay at 2 or 3 ahead of unbeaten Oklahoma and 1-loss Big Ten champ Ohio State, so we think this is again a favorable projection for the Bearcats and their CFP hopes.
- An interesting finding is Oklahoma now projecting to have the top overall raw resume at the end of the year ahead of Georgia. Even with Iowa State and Baylor taking a loss in the past two weeks OU’s remaining schedule is strong enough to merit the raw resume rating.
Unexpected results from Week 10 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
- North Carolina over Wake Forest
- Memphis over SMU
- TCU over Baylor
- Illinois over Minnesota
- Purdue over Michigan State
- Central Michigan over Western Michigan
- Ohio over Miami (OH)
- Arizona over Cal
- Colorado over Oregon State
- South Carolina over Florida
Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating
Risers
- #72 South Carolina (-6.2)
- #9 Wisconsin (-4.8)
- #110 Arizona (-4.6)
- #21 Utah (-3.8)
- #71 East Carolina (-3.7)
Fallers
- #31 Florida (+5.6)
- #82 Stanford (+4.9)
- #81 Rutgers (+4.5)
- #80 Western Michigan (+4.2)
- #40 Minnesota (+4.2)
Now let’s highlight a few Week 11 games worth watching (CTSR Ranking: CTSR Rating):
- #1 Georgia (1: 1) vs Tennessee (35: 36.1)
- #9 Michigan (4: 16.7) vs #23 Penn State (13: 26.1)
- #6 Ohio State (3: 10.9) vs Purdue (30: 34.9)
- #4 Oklahoma (5: 18.8) vs #18 Baylor (20: 28.6)
- #12 Ole Miss (12: 25.9) vs #11 Texas A&M (10: 24.0)
- #13 Wake Forest (15: 26.8) vs #21 NC State (22: 29.8)
- #7 Notre Dame (8: 23.2) vs Virginia (39: 37.7)
That’s all we have for the Week 10. If you have any questions about either the CFP-Wheeler or CFP-Nielsen Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter or Facebook. If you would like to officially reference our rankings the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
College Football Playoff Resume Rankings 