Welcome to the 2021 Week 13 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
We are one week away from having our 2021 playoffs settled! Rivalry week brought us a collection of fantastic and meaningful games between Michigan and Ohio State, Alabama and Auburn, and Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. In the early window, Michigan taught Ohio State a lesson in physicality running over the Buckeyes. In the afternoon, Auburn played the perfect game against Alabama for 58 minutes, but a desperate 98-yard drive forced overtime and in 4OT Alabama pulled out the win. In the evening, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State played a back-and-forth game that nearly saw the Sooners match Alabama’s feat but fall short. It was a crazy day of football that has set the stage for conference championship weekend.
If the final 8 teams alive were Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Notre Dame, we now have resolution in 3 of the pseudo quarterfinal games with Michigan beating Ohio State, Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma and Cincinnati beating Notre Dame. The remaining quarterfinal game is Georgia vs Alabama. The reality this week is that no conference championship is a true elimination game for both teams who would otherwise be in contention for a playoff spot. Georgia could lose to Alabama and still get in. For the other impactful title games Baylor, Iowa and Houston are all in a spot with very little hope of making the playoffs. There are 4 teams playing a game to stay alive and none play each other. Later in the post we break down the playoff hierarchy for each of those teams, and lay out the path for each contender to make the playoffs. For now, we bask in another glorious week of chaos and look forward to the chaos to come.
Let’s take a look at the Week 13 CFP-Nielsen rankings (note: these ranking should mirror the CFP committee):
Notes on the Year-to-Date Rankings:
- This week’s rankings matter for Alabama, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Ohio State and Notre Dame. If Alabama is at 2, a close loss to Georgia creates a path for them to make it in at 3 with an appropriate level of chaos. It’s hard to see Alabama at 4 with a semifinal rematch against the team they just lost to. If Alabama is behind Michigan or maybe even Cincinnati this week, then the committee has drawn a line in the sand for the Crimson Tide, win and get in, lose and you are out. For Cincinnati and Oklahoma State the path seems straight forward should Georgia win the SEC, win and get in. If Notre Dame can stay ahead of Oklahoma State that creates a problem for the Cowboys who now need to jump a team that will not lose next week. That would also create a buffer for Cincinnati who will not have a resume better than 12-1 Oklahoma State even at 13-0. For Ohio State it’s all about being ahead of Notre Dame. Ohio State was 2 and lost to a likely new number 2. Notre Dame was 6. Is there any chance Ohio State stays ahead of Notre Dame and in the poll position should chaos unravel next week?
- Per our data, Alabama and Michigan are close enough that it won’t be egregious if Michigan is ahead this week. Oklahoma State and Notre Dame are close enough that either could be reasonably ahead. Cincinnati is the team most likely to be ranked ahead of their resume, but for the 5th strongest team that is ok to some extent.
Reasonable CFP Rankings for Contenders based on different blends of Resume Data
Now let’s look at the updated End-of-Year Projected CFP-Wheeler rankings (note: these rankings should project the end of year CFP committee rankings):
Notes on the Year-End Projected Rankings:
- People wonder if Alabama at 11-2 could still get in especially after the Auburn game. From a resume perspective? Sure! In reality, not if Cincinnati and Notre Dame are waiting in the wings. Our current projection would yield a playoff with Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. Notre Dame is most likely to end up at 5 with Alabama likely to be at 6. The key for Alabama if they were to lose is staying ahead of Ohio State and having ultimate chaos unfold.
- There are realistically 9 teams with any hope of making the CFP. Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Iowa and Ohio State. 3 of those are super long shots (Baylor, Iowa and Ohio State) needing all sorts of chaos to unfold. That means it’s really 6 teams for 4 spots. There is a world where after next week all 6 have a claim to be in and 2 get left out high and dry. There is also a world where only 2 or 3 teams can comfortably watch the selection show because of the chaos at play. For now let’s take a look at the hierarchy of potential resumes and what a true CFP hierarchy might look like.
Resume Hierarchy
- 13-0 Georgia (conference champion)
- 12-1 Alabama (cc)
- 12-1 Georgia
- 12-1 Michigan (cc)
- 12-1 Oklahoma State (cc)
- 11-2 Alabama
- 11-2 Michigan
- 11-2 Oklahoma State
- 13-0 Cincinnati (cc)
- 11-2 Baylor (cc)
- 11-2 Iowa (cc)
- 11-1 Notre Dame
- 10-2 Ohio State
- 11-2 Oregon (cc)
- 11-2 Wake Forest (cc)
- 12-1 Cincinnati
- 10-2 Ole Miss
- 11-2 Pitt (cc)
- 12-1 Houston (cc)
What does this mean for the playoffs? There are plenty of teams who would finish ahead of their resume given specific conference championship game outcomes. For example, 11-2 Baylor would finish ahead of 11-2 Oklahoma State despite having less overall resume value given current team strengths. The same would be true for 11-2 Iowa and 11-2 Michigan. Given where each resume is, a realistic CFP Hierarchy might look as follows:
- 13-0 Georgia (cc)
- 12-1 Alabama (cc)
- 12-1 Michigan (cc)
- 12-1 Georgia
- 12-1 Oklahoma State (cc)
- 13-0 Cincinnati (cc)
- 11-1 Notre Dame
- 11-2 Alabama
- 11-2 Baylor (cc)
- 11-2 Iowa (cc)
- 10-2 Ohio State
So, what are the realistic paths for each team to the playoffs?
Georgia – In so long as they don’t get absolutely demolished while Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State dominate.
Alabama – Win and get in, lose a close enough game to be at #3 and have 2 or maybe all 3 of Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati lose
Michigan – Win and get in
Oklahoma State – Win and should be in, but probably need either Alabama or one of Cincinnati/Michigan to lose to feel safe
Cincinnati – Probably win and get in, but probably need either Alabama or one of Oklahoma State/Michigan to lose to feel safe
Notre Dame – Georgia over Alabama, Cincinnati over Houston, one of Michigan/Oklahoma State lose creates a path for Notre Dame
Baylor – Win big, Georgia over Alabama big, either Iowa over Michigan or Houston over Cincinnati big, hope to jump Ohio State who will probably be ahead this week
Iowa – Huge win, Georgia over Alabama, Baylor close over Oklahoma State and Houston over Cincinnati big, hope to get in over some combo of Ohio State/Michigan/Alabama/Cincinnati/Baylor
Unexpected results from Week 13 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
- Virginia Tech over Virginia
- Tulsa over SMU
- Texas over Kansas State
- Michigan over Ohio State
- Minnesota over Wisconsin
- North Texas over UTSA
- Rice over Louisiana Tech
- Bowling Green over Ohio
- Kent State over Miami (OH)
- Hawaii over Wyoming
- LSU over Texas A&M
Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating
Risers
- 70 Maryland (-4.8)
- 93 Hawaii (-4.6)
- 23 Kentucky (-4.0)
- 98 North Texas (-3.8)
- 126 New Mexico State (-3.5)
Fallers
- 47 UTSA (+4.9)
- 44 Louisville (+4.3)
- 3 Ohio State (+4.3)
- 83 Rutgers (+4.3)
- 85 Wyoming (+4.1)
Now let’s highlight the Conference Championship games worth watching (CTSR Ranking: CTSR Rating):
- #1 Georgia (1: 1.0) vs #4 Alabama (2: 11.5)
- #2 Michigan (4: 14.7) vs #15 Iowa (19: 29.7)
- #5 Oklahoma State (7: 19.4) vs #9 Baylor (13: 27.9)
- #3 Cincinnati (5: 18.2) vs #16 Houston (29: 35.3)
- #14 Utah (12: 27.4) vs #10 Oregon (21: 30.3)
- #17 Pitt (15: 28.7) vs #18 Wake Forest (16: 29.4)
- Appalachian State (25: 33.7) vs #20 Louisiana (35: 37.2)
- #19 San Diego State (41: 39.7) vs Utah State (69: 51.6)
- UTSA (47: 41.3) vs Western Kentucky (50: 41.8)
- Kent State (88: 61.4) vs Northern Illinois (89: 61.5)
That’s all we have for the Week 13. If you have any questions about either the CFP-Wheeler or CFP-Nielsen Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter or Facebook. If you would like to officially reference our rankings the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
College Football Playoff Resume Rankings 